Political news today is littered with commentary about a divided nation: red states/blue states and the polarization of the Republican and Democratic parties. The proliferation of political surveys has also created a steady stream of news reports with conflicting and confusing statements.
To cut through some of the noise, we decided to step back and look for information on how people have self-identified by political party over time. A Gallup Poll survey, conducted monthly since 2004, is an independent and reliable source of data on this very question. Every month, they ask respondents two questions:
- In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?
- (If an independent) As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?
We reviewed these data to identify important patterns and trends. There were four interesting conclusions from our review:
1. More people today self-identify as Independent instead of Republican or Democrat. In January of this year, for example, 44% of respondents considered themselves an Independent versus 28% Republican and 25% Democrat. The rise in political independence is likely related to Americans' frustration with party gridlock.
2. Being an Independent grew in popularity over the past 8 years. While 44% now consider themselves Independent, only 36% did so in January 2010. (See chart)
3. This was due to fewer people identifying as Democrats rather than a decline in Republican affiliation. In January 2010, 28% of respondents called themselves Republicans, the same percent as in January 2017. But over the same period, the percent identifying as Democrat fell from 34% to 25%.
4. When Independents are probed on whether they lean Republican or Democrat, Republicans and Democrats are virtually tied. While independents may lack a strong attachment to either party, most are inclined to favor one party and vote that way. Gallup questions independents to determine whether they tilt Republican or Democratic. By combining party identifiers and leaners, it gives a sense of the relative strength of the two major parties in the U.S. In January of this year, 44% of Gallup poll respondents identified as either Republican or as an Independent leaning Republican versus 43% for Democrats. The previous year was 44% Republican and 45% Democrat.
NOTE: All the Gallup survey data is available on their web site at http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
DISCLAIMER: This information is not intended to provide legal or accounting advice, or to address specific situations. Please consult with your legal or tax advisor to supplement and verify what you learn here. This is presented for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy/sell any security investment or other product, nor is this an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security investment or other product. Any opinion or estimate constitutes that of the writer only, and is subject to change without notice. The above may contain information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. No guarantees are made about the accuracy or completeness of information provided. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.